M.N.: Extra! Extra! Attention FBI! The direct hypothetical (although rather circumstantial and pictorial Google) evidence has been discovered between Gerhard Schroeder, the Trump Witchhunt (the whole coven of them was found in the White House!), and the Big Mother Sarah. SCHRUDER CAPUT! - 2.26.19
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M.N.: Extra! Extra! Attention FBI! The direct hypothetical (although rather circumstantial and pictorial Google) evidence has been discovered between Gerhard Schroeder, the Trump Witchhunt (the whole coven of them was found in the White House!), and the Big Mother Sarah. SCHRUDER CAPUT! - 2.26.19
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U.S. President Donald Trump. Win McNamee/Getty Images
Feds claim vaguely to know a lot about President Donald Trump’s secret Kremlin ties. What’s behind the spy mystery here? How much does the FBI know and how does it know it? At last, we have more than hints.
Ignominiously firing Andrew McCabe, the FBI’s deputy director, on January 29, 2018, just 26 hours shy of his retirement, was one of Donald Trump’s more consequential missteps. Kicking the career G-Man out of the Bureau a day short of his pension guaranteed that McCabe would seek payback, and he has gotten it mightily.
McCabe’s memoir, out this month, has shot to the top of bestseller lists, thanks in part to President Trump’s public berating of the author. As is his custom, Trump’s hysterical tweets about the book have significantly boosted sales. Most recently, Trump’s insult that McCabe is a “poor man’s J. Edgar Hoover” got the reply, “I don’t even know what that means.” Really, none of us do at this point.
Trump seems unhinged by all the publicity McCabe’s been getting on his book tour, while the former FBI bigwig’s comments can’t sit well at the White House. McCabe has made clear that the Bureau investigated the president’s Kremlin connections because Trump so frequently parroted Russian propaganda in the Oval Office. In slightly more guarded language, McCabe stated, “I think it’s possible” when asked point-blank if President Trump might be an asset of Russian intelligence.
How exactly top counterintelligence officials in our nation’s capital came to the shocking conclusion that Donald Trump really might be working for the Kremlin is the big question lurking at the heart of the entire Department of Justice investigation into the current administration. Answering that will reveal the core secrets of this presidency and perhaps change American politics forever.
It’s no secret that senior FBI officials knew that something was amiss with candidate Trump and his foreign linkages back in 2016. That summer, the Bureau opened a tightly compartmented counterintelligence investigation into possible Russian espionage connections to Team Trump. Memorably termed CROSSFIRE HURRICANE, that inquiry opened the door to the Special Counsel investigation headed by Robert S. Mueller, III, still in progress today. What exactly the FBI’s initial investigation uncovered remains shrouded behind classification, but we’ve now gotten a big hint about what was really happening that fateful summer.
Like so much of what’s been publicly revealed about CROSSFIRE HURRICANE, it involves Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, who back in 2016 were the FBI’s counterintelligence boss and a Bureau attorney, respectively, who were also secret lovers. They exchanged a lot of indiscreet text messages about Trump during the presidential campaign, some of which had no business being in unclassified messages. For their indiscretions, Strzok and Page were run out of the FBI in disgrace, becoming something of an obsession for Team Trump, including the president himself.
Now The Daily Caller has reported what Strzok and Page told Congress last year, in closed testimony, about what was going on with CROSSFIRE HURRICANE back in mid-2016. To make a long spy story short, the lovers were concerned that mounting a serious, sustained counterintelligence investigation into Trump’s ties to Moscow ran the risk of exposing a longtime Bureau intelligence source of great value.
As Page told Congress on July 13, 2018, “If [Trump] is not going to be president, then we don’t need to burn longstanding sources and risk sort of the loss of future investigative outlets, not in this case, but in other Russia-related matters.” Two weeks later, Strzok told Congress that a notorious text exchange with his mistress about a mysterious FBI “insurance policy” actually referred to this shadowy “very sensitive source” who, The Daily Caller noted, “had provided evidence of possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.”
On July 12, 2018, Strzok touched on this sensitive source in his public Congressional testimony:
What we had before us was an allegation that something significant, that members of the Trump campaign may have been working in cooperation with the Russians. Some people were saying, ‘hey look, this sensitive source of information that’s so sensitive, so vulnerable, we shouldn’t put it in danger,’ because sometimes if you go out and do aggressive investigation, if it’s a drug snitch or an intelligence source, you can cause significant harm.
Who, then, was this super-sensitive source providing the FBI with evidence of possible collusion between candidate Trump and the Kremlin? Three individuals are known to have provided information to CROSSFIRE HURRICANE: Alexander Downer, Australia’s high commissioner (i.e., ambassador to Britain), retired British spy Christopher Steele (complier of the notorious dossier about Trump and the Russians), and Stefan Halper, an academic and supposed intelligence source for the FBI and CIA.
To be blunt, none of these men is a plausible fit for the “very sensitive source” whom Strzok referenced. Downer and Halper are mere casual sources, no more than access agents, while Steele’s relationship to CROSSFIRE HURRICANE was already exposed long before Strzok and Page testified before Congress.
The clear implication of what The Daily Caller uncovered is that the FBI had a highly important intelligence source in or near the Trump campaign. In other words, the Bureau had a mole. Protecting that source was deemed more important in the summer of 2016 than stopping the Trump campaign, which the FBI knew or at least strongly suspected was in bed with Vladimir Putin.
Who could be that important to the Bureau? Logic and counterintelligence experience dictate that such a source had to be very close to Donald Trump. The mole’s identity has not been revealed and probably won’t be anytime soon, leaving major questions unanswered about how the FBI knew what it knew back in 2016—all of which is surely known to Team Mueller now.
But what if the mole wasn’t a person? The FBI has long protected super-secret technical intelligence programs, above all signals intelligence, by masquerading their information as coming from (non-existent) human sources. Were Strzok and Page obliquely referring to top-secret-plus SIGINT regarding Trump’s clandestine ties to Moscow?
That would fit with what this column previously reported about the president’s Kremlin ties. As I told you last May, “The counterintelligence investigation of Donald Trump was kicked off by not one, not two, but multiple SIGINT reports which set off alarm bells inside our Intelligence Community,” explaining that the initial information came from foreign intelligence partners. I added:
NSA understood quite a bit about Trump’s connections to Moscow, and by mid-2016, it had increased its efforts to get to the bottom of the mystery regarding the candidate’s Russian ties. In response to urgent FBI requests for more information, NSA rose to the occasion, and by the time that Donald Trump officially accepted the Republican nomination in mid-July 2016, ‘We knew we had a Russian agent on our hands,’ as a senior NSA official put it to me recently.
That seems to be the same intelligence which Strzok and Page referred to in coded language, for classification reasons. The Trump White House now is no doubt searching frantically for an FBI mole in their ranks who may not exist. Excellent technical intelligence was always the underpinning of CROSSFIRE HURRICANE, as the FBI has been careful to conceal in order to protect top-secret intelligence sources and methods. The full spy story here, just as with the last major league joint NSA-FBI counterintelligence coup against Moscow, will take decades to be fully revealed to the public.
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The big new development in the Russian collusion story is a pair of reports examining how Russian agents used social media to help Donald Trump’s presidential campaign by trying to suppress black votes, along with those of other demographic groups generally unfriendly to Trump. As NBC News put it, with blunt candor: “Russia Favored Trump, Targeted African-Americans with Election Meddling, Reports Say.”
The two reports were commissioned by the bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee, which assigned independent researchers to examine Russian influence efforts across multiple social media platforms including Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and YouTube. This massive influence campaign—it led to more than 300 million engagements from 2015 to 2017, researchers say—was orchestrated by the Internet Research Agency, the Putin-aligned Russian firm, a dozen of whose employees were indicted by special counsel Robert Mueller in February.
An earlier piece at Bloomberg News emphasized that the Russian effort focused particularly on discouraging black Americans from voting:
Among the groups most heavily targeted by the Russians: African-Americans. The researchers found a cross-platform effort to target black Americans, often with memes about police brutality, and later feeding them voter suppression messages. Among the narratives shared with black audiences was a meme "I WON’T VOTE, WILL YOU?" Another said "Everybody SUCKS, We’re Screwed 2016.”
As many Twitter users have noted—and as astute Bloomberg Businessweek readers may remember—this attempt to dissuade black voters sounds eerily familiar. That’s because the Trump campaign itself tried to do something similar: Back in October 2016, just before the presidential election, a colleague and I visited the campaign’s data headquarters in San Antonio, Tex., and were shown examples of stealthy Facebook ads targeting black Americans—so-called “dark posts”—that were meant to sully Hillary Clinton’s image by playing up racially inflammatory comments she’d once made and thereby weaken her black support. Here’s what we wrote at the time:
“We have three major voter suppression operations under way,” says a senior [Trump campaign] official. They’re aimed at three groups Clinton needs to win overwhelmingly: idealistic white liberals, young women, and African Americans. Trump’s invocation at the debate of Clinton’s WikiLeaks e-mails and support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership was designed to turn off Sanders supporters. The parade of women who say they were sexually assaulted by Bill Clinton and harassed or threatened by Hillary is meant to undermine her appeal to young women. And her 1996 suggestion that some African American males are “super predators” is the basis of a below-the-radar effort to discourage infrequent black voters from showing up at the polls—particularly in Florida.
On Oct. 24, Trump’s team began placing spots on select African American radio stations. In San Antonio, a young staffer showed off a South Park-style animation he’d created of Clinton delivering the “super predator” line (using audio from her original 1996 sound bite), as cartoon text popped up around her: “Hillary Thinks African Americans are Super Predators.” The animation will be delivered to certain African American voters through Facebook “dark posts”—nonpublic posts whose viewership the campaign controls so that, as [digital director Brad] Parscale puts it, “only the people we want to see it, see it.” The aim is to depress Clinton’s vote total. “We know because we’ve modeled this,” says the official. “It will dramatically affect her ability to turn these people out.”
In light of the new research reports on Russian meddling, several readers contacted me to ask if I think the Russians colluded with the Trump campaign to discourage black American votes. Could it be pure coincidence that both entities were targeting the same people, at the same time, for the same end, using the same means: social media?
The short answer is: I don’t know. Sometime in the not-too-distant future, Robert Mueller and his investigators may shed light on the answer. For what it’s worth, Parscale and other Trump officials have in the past vehemently denied—including to me personally—colluding with the Russians. (Parscale didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment for this column.)
As a political reporter, I’ve learned never to rule out anything when it comes to Trump. But there are differences worth pointing out between the black-voter dissuasion efforts I witnessed in San Antonio and the Russian efforts described in the new reports. The key difference, as the researchers describe it, is that Russian agents sought to infiltrate black groups and gain members’ trust over a long period of time in order to manipulate them later on. The Trump campaign ads I saw simply sought to deliver a negative message—or a quick succession of negative messages—in the closing weeks of the campaign to discourage low-propensity black voters from showing up.
Researchers described the Russian social media campaign in detail: “The greatest effort on Facebook and Instagram appears to have been focused on developing Black audiences. There was significant and extensive integration into the Black community, particularly on Facebook, via the creation of a dedicated media ecosystem, the sharing and cross-promotion of legitimate media content, and ongoing attempted development of human assets. The degree of integration was not replicated in the Right-leaning content. ...
“There were several variants of suppression narratives, spread both on Twitter and on Facebook. These included malicious misdirection (text-to-vote scams deployed on Twitter), support redirection (‘vote for a 3rd party!’), and turnout suppression (‘stay home on Election Day!’).
The Trump campaign also wanted black voters to stay home on Election Day. But as officials described it to me at the time, their effort was targeted at a specific group of voters: Haitian Americans living in South Florida. The Trump campaign targeted them because it was an article of faith among its senior staff that Haitian Americans were susceptible to negative messaging about Hillary Clinton. The conservative author Peter Schweizer argued in his 2015 book, Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich, that many were disillusioned by the Clinton Foundation’s efforts after it made expansive promises about helping to rebuild Haiti after the 2010 earthquake. At that time, Hillary Clinton was secretary of state, and her husband was appointed co-chairman of the Interim Haiti Recovery Commission. This clip from the Clinton Cash movie gives a flavor of the anti-Clinton argument:
Trump’s brain trust had enough faith in this thesis that it didn’t limit the campaign’s efforts to social media. Trump himself visited Miami’s “Little Haiti” neighborhood during a September 2016 campaign swing and promised to “be a friend” to Haitian Americans. News reports at the time, such as this onefrom the Associated Press, suggest that targeting Haitian Americans wasn’t a fanciful notion:
“It is true that some members of the Haitian-American community have questioned where the billions of dollars in earthquake aid went. In March 2015, some Haitian-Americans protested in front of Clinton’s New York office, according to local news reports. Marleine Bastien, a longtime Haitian-American activist and executive director of a Florida-based advocacy group, Haitian Women of Miami, said that six years after the earthquake, there are still questions about how the money has been spent. But more pressing to the Haitian-American community, she said, is the issue of Haitian immigrants detained at the U.S. southern border since late September and then deported.”
None of this rules out the possibility that the Trump campaign and the Russians colluded to discourage black American voters. But neither do Monday’s reports make new connections I can see that add evidence to the suspicion that they might have. Russians wouldn’t have needed inside information to know that discouraging black voters would help Trump. If there’s a danger here for Trump, it’s that the Russians might have offered to help, anyway.
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PARTICIPANTS POSE for a photo during the Middle East summit in Warsaw earlier this month.. (photo credit: REUTERS)
The 60-nation strong conference held in Warsaw last week, intended to “Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East,” might actually bear fruit. The overarching goal was to achieve a durable peace with normalized multilateral relations between pragmatic nations in the Middle East, or the “ultimate deal,” as US President Donald Trump refers to it. Such peace will unfortunately take more time to ripen, but several key achievements were accomplished in Warsaw en route to the grand goal.
The first is in the conference commencement itself. The fact that a key European capital hosted 60 world leaders, united to confront one common and critical threat – Iran – is significant. Reversing the futile policy of appeasing Iran, which began with Trump’s “Riyadh address” in May 2017, has now become a reality with a large alliance committed to resist Iran’s aggression and manipulation. Even if Germany, home to the conglomerate that helped build an Iranian reactor, has once again chosen the wrong side of history, the alliance against the Iran regime is strong and mounting.
After discrete diplomacy between Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman and others in the region over the past decade, this is the first time the leader of the Jewish state and leaders of the prominent Muslim states candidly and productively conversed with a common goal for all to see. Dennis Ross, the US diplomat who served as special Middle East coordinator under Bill Clinton, and who chaired a panel at the conference, said, “There were actual exchanges. That was new and different.” The late Shimon Peres might have envisioned the New Middle East to look like this.
Those who don’t fully realize Iran’s concern over the summit should tune into its state-run Press TV broadcasts to appreciate the conference’s achievement and the Ayatollahs’ attempts to downplay it. A few Western critics also tried downplaying the dramatic setting, dismissing it as nothing more than a politically motivated stunt, timed and intended for internal affairs related to the reelection of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and to bolster opinion polls for the American president, with 58 leaders of other world powers serving as props.
Nonsense.
The same critics made similar statements after Netanyahu’s 2015 speech before a joint session of Congress and a disgruntled president, in an attempt to derail the nuclear deal with Iran. The byproduct of that speech did help Netanyahu get reelected, but more importantly, it eventually helped convince American lawmakers to promote a withdrawal from that dire deal.
TIME WILL TELL if the 2019 pact in Poland was as historic as some see it. In the meantime, we can ponder on the statements made by Bahrain Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, who said, “We grew up talking about the Palestine-Israel dispute as the most important issue that we have to see solved... but then at a later stage we saw a bigger challenge. We saw a more toxic one – in fact the most toxic one in our modern history – that came from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
And Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said, “Iran plays a destructive role everywhere in the region. Look at the Palestinians – who supports Hamas? Who is making a mess in Syria? Iran. Who is trying to smuggle chemical weapons to Kuwait and Bahrain? Iran... If we want peace and stability in the Middle East, we must make clear to the Iranians that they have to behave like a normal country.”
Iran was not the only bystander that took notice of the conference and the change it represented. So did the Palestinians, who once again did not miss the opportunity to miss an opportunity by boycotting the Warsaw gathering. Their leaders might still recall the ill-fated Oslo Accords, signed over 25 years ago, which achieved little else but bloodshed, and a lost generation of leadership for Palestinians. It is now realized that Palestinian veto power to stop normalization in the region is becoming obsolete. Cooperation in the region, for the common good of the pragmatic states, can progress despite Palestinian rejectionism.
The world understands that even if Iran’s plans materialized, and Israel were to somehow disappear, the war in Syria would continue, as would the instability in Iraq and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. So would the civil war between Shi’ite Iran and Sunni Arabs led by Saudi Arabia. The pragmatic nations of the world realize that in the quest for a solution, Israel has more to offer than its remote real estate. A clear sign of such recognition was shown this week when Hungarian, Czech Republic, and Slovakian officials announced diplomatic offices in Jerusalem.
The Palestinians will soon need to choose between Iran and pragmatism. Time is not necessarily on their side, and until they are prepared to accept the legitimacy of the Jewish state – which they have never done – there will be no peace. In the meantime, their negotiating leverage might continue to deplete. Since taking office, Trump has taken “Jerusalem off the table,” and casually dismissed a US commitment to a two-state solution, saying the sides will decide on the matter, while indicating that he is fine with the one Jewish state. If the Palestinians continue to boycott talks while praying for an impeachment in America or Israel, they may find area C in the disputed territories annexed and the “demand of return” into Israel proper become a non-issue.
The Jared Kushner-organized conference was a powerful follow-up to his father-in-law’s “Riyadh address.” Between the address and the conference, the president has withdrawn from the dubious nuclear deal, imposed stifling sanctions on the Ayatollahs, and more. It’s now time the Saudis and other Sunni states to do more. Their active participation in Poland – alongside America’s vice president and secretary of state, the United Kingdom’s foreign minister, and the prime minister of Israel – was a good sign that a meaningful and pragmatic pact set in Poland is possible.
The writer is a visiting scholar at Georgetown University and a research fellow at the Institute for Counter Terrorism. The views expressed here are his own.
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