8:45 AM 12/14/2018 - Revelations about hush money and Russian interference renew debate over the legitimacy of Trump’s 2016 win
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Claims by Democrats and other Trump critics fit a pattern over decades in which the losing side questions the right of a sitting president to govern.
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Before the start of business, Just Security provides a curated summary of up-to-the-minute developments at home and abroad. Here’s today’s news.
TRUMP-RUSSIA
President Trump yesterday attempted to distance himself from his former personal lawyer and longtime “fixer” Michael Cohen, who was sentenced on Wednesday for a series of offences including some that prosecutors allege the president directed Cohen to commit, in a prosecution stemming from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian electoral interference. Trump claimed that he never directed Cohen to violate the law, although he did not explicitly deny ordering Cohen to organize hush-money payments during the 2016 presidential campaign, Rebecca Ballhaus reports at the Wall Street Journal.
Trump asserted that his former lawyer had pleaded guilty to embarrass him and to receive a reduced prison term, sending a series of morning messages on Twitter claiming that: “he was a lawyer and he is supposed to know the law … it is called ‘advice of counsel,’ and a lawyer has great liability if a mistake is made … that is why they get paid. Despite that many campaign finance lawyers have strongly stated that I did nothing wrong with respect to campaign finance laws, if they even apply, because this was not campaign finance … Cohen was guilty on many charges unrelated to me, but he plead to two campaign charges which were not criminal and of which he probably was not those charges were just agreed to by him in order to embarrass the president and get a much reduced prison sentence…” Maggie Haberman and Michael S. Schmidt report at the New York Times.
“They put that on to embarrass me,” Trump said of the hush-money payments in an interview with Fox News later yesterday, adding “they’re not criminal charges” – despite the fact that a federal judge had accepted Cohen’s guilty pleas and sentenced him in respect of campaign finance violations. Doubling down on his chosen line of defense, the president claimed: “what happened is either Cohen or the prosecutors, in order to embarrass me, said listen: I’m making this deal for reduced time and everything else … do me a favor and put these two charges on,” Jonathan Allen and Allan Smith report at NBC.
Russian gun rights activist Mariia Butina yesterday pleaded guilty to acting as an agent of the Russian government. The plea leaves Butina as the first Russian national convicted for covert attempts to influence U.S. policy during the 2016 election, although her case was not handled by the Mueller probe. As part of her deal, Butina has agreed to cooperate with investigators – cooperation that could shed light on Moscow’s efforts to gain a foothold in conservative U.S. politics, Kyle Cheney reports at POLTICIO.
Butina’s lawyer Robert Driscoll estimates that she could face up to six months in prison, according to Reuters. She is being held at an adult detention center in Virginia, with a sentencing hearing set for 12 February, the BBC reports.
Prosecutors reportedly will ask for a lighter sentence for Butina, who has been detained since July, but said she is “very likely” to be deported on release, Adam Rawnsley reports at The Daily Beast.
Special counsel Robert Mueller “is setting a curious pattern as he squeezes cooperation and guilty pleas out of suspects in his investigation,” Devlin Barrett writes in analysis at the Washington Post, arguing that the developments indicate that Mueller is entering the final stages of the probe.
The situation could deteriorate further for the president, Lisa Lerer comments at the New York Times, citing the fact that “various Democratic politicians want to investigate the president’s financial deals, his business ties to Russia, his handling of Saudi Arabia and North Korea, his efforts to undercut the special counsel investigation, his children’s business and political affairs, and a long list of agencies and cabinet secretaries.”
“About the only possible check on Mr. Mueller is a judge who is wise to the tricks of prosecutors and investigators,” Kimberley A. Strassel comments at the Wall Street Journal, citing as an example Judge Emmet Sullivan – assigned to the case of former national security adviser Michael Flynn – and arguing that Sullivan has “done the nation a favor by using his Brady order to hold prosecutors to some account and allow the country a glimpse at how federal law enforcement operates.”
RUSSIA: OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Russia is apparently ready to discuss mutual inspections with the U.S. in order to save the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (I.N.F.,) R.I.A. news agency cited Russia’s ministry of foreign affairs as saying today. Last week, Washington announced Russia must scrap its 9M729 nuclear-capable cruise missiles and launchers or modify the weapons’ range to return to compliance to the accord; “if the U.S. really wants to come to some kind of agreement with us, then we need to sit down at the negotiating table in an inter-agency format and agree on everything in detail … we are ready for this,” foreign ministry official Vladimir Yermakov was quoted as saying, Reuters reports.
U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said yesterday there are no plans to reschedule a meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, citing Moscow’s seizure of Ukrainian ships and their crews in the Kerch Strait. “I don’t see circumstances in the foreseeable future where such a meeting could take place until the ships and crews are released,” Bolton told reporters at the Heritage Foundation yesterday morning, Morgan Chalfant reports at the Hill.
“The West must realize that a rogue Kremlin only respects force,” Anders Åslund comments at Just Security, in an analysis of Moscow’s violations of international law that concludes: “if Russia no longer respects any international treaty, the West must not shy away …. N.A.T.O. countries should send ships to accompany Ukrainian naval ships to ensure their rightful passage into the Sea of Azov.”
YEMEN
The Senate voted yesterday to end U.S. military assistance for the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, in “the strongest show of bipartisan defiance” against President Trump’s backing of the kingdom over the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. The 56-to-41 vote marked a unusual move by the Senate to limit presidential war powers, sending an explicit message of disapproval for a conflict that has dragged on for nearly four years, killed thousands and created the world’s most severe humanitarian crisis, Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Eric Schmitt report at the New York Times.
Yemen’s warring parties agreed yesterday to a ceasefire for the strategic Red Sea city of Hodeidah and its surrounding governorate, marking a significant breakthrough that could herald a beginning of an end to the conflict, as U.N.-brokered peace talks wrap up in the rural Swedish town of Rimbo. U.N. Secretary-General António Gutteres announced yesterday that the Iran-aligned Shi’ite Houthi rebels have agreed to withdraw from the western city and additionally relinquish control of three of its ports – Hodeidah, Saleef and Ras Isa – which will fall under the control of “local forces” who will in turn send the ports’ revenues to the country’s Central Bank, Al Jazeera reports.
The Houthis have also agreed in principle on a role for the U.N. at Sanaa airport, a spokesperson for the movement announced yesterday. A U.N. role would include carrying out safety and inspection checks at the capital’s airport, Reuters reports.
JAMAL KHASHOGGI KILLING
The Senate passed a resolution yesterday naming Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as “responsible” for the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. The resolution, headed by outgoing Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) is nonbinding, but it puts the Senate’s position on the crown prince on record; “unanimously, the U.S. Senate has said that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi …that is a strong statement … I think it speaks to the values that we hold dear. … I’m glad the Senate is speaking with once voice unanimously toward this end,” Corker commented shortly after the vote. Jordain Carney reports at the Hill.
“The Senate’s vote shows that Mr. Trump cannot protect the kingdom from the consequences of the crown prince’s criminal acts,” The Washington Post editorial board comments.
SYRIA
Kurdish-led forces seized Islamic State group’s primary Syrian hub of Hajin today, marking a milestone in the significant and expensive U.S.-backed operation to eradicate the militants from the east of the country. Hajin was the largest settlement in what is the last pocket of territory controlled by Islamic State group, according to U.K.-based war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, AFPreports.
Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdoğan announced today that Turkish forces will enter the Syrian town of Manbij if the U.S. does not remove Y.P.G Kurdish fighters, and will additionally target Kurdish-controlled areas further east. Reuters reports.
Although the overall intensity of violence in Syria has decreased, civilians continue to be killed by air and ground-based strikes, U.N. Under -Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock told the Security Council yesterday, during a briefing on the current situation in the country, the U.N. News Centre reports.
U.S.-led airstrikes continue. U.S. and coalition forces carried out 251 airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria between Dec 2. and Dec. 8. [Central Command]
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Two Israeli soldiers were shot dead by a Palestinian at a bus stop in the occupied West Bank yesterday, the Israel Defense Force (I.D.F.) said, sparking military raids in the city of Ramallah which saw a Palestinian killed. In response, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to ‘legalize’ thousands of settlements homes thought to be unlawfully-built even by the Israeli administration, AFPreports.
Palestinian media reported today that scores of Palestinians, including two legislators, were arrested across the West Bank in the course of the night raids. The I.D.F. announced that it had arrested 40 people and alleged 37 of them are linked to Hamas militant group, Al Jazeera reports.
An account of the destruction of suspected Hezbollah tunnels on the Israel-Lebanon frontier yesterday is provided by Sarah El Deeb at the AP.
AFGHANISTAN
U.S.-backed Afghan forces are targeting the Taliban field commanders seen as presenting major impediments to possible peace talks, as military pressure on the insurgents is ramped up, according to security officials. Reuters reports.
A roundup of significant security incidents confirmed by New York Times reporters throughout Afghanistan for Dec. 7-13 is provided by Fahim Abed at the New York Times.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are looking into whether President Trump’s 2017 inaugural committee misspent some of the record $107 million it raised from donations, according to people familiar with the matter. The criminal probe is reportedly also investigating whether some of the committee’s most significant donors gave cash in exchange for access to the incoming Trump administration, policy concessions or to sway official administration positions, Rebecca Davis O’Brien, Rebecca Ballhaus and Aruna Viswanatha report at the Wall Street Journal.
Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner is on the short-list of potential candidates to be the next White House chief of staff, U.S. media reported yesterday. AFP reports.
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WASHINGTON — To the conservative Americans she courted, Maria Butina was the right kind of Russian.
She loved guns and the church and networking with top officials in the National Rifle Association. She schmoozed with Republican presidential candidates, and became a supporter of Donald J. Trump. She spent Thanksgiving at a congressman’s country house, took a Trump campaign aide to see the rock band Styx and helped a Rockefeller heir organize “friendship dinners” with influential Washingtonians.
On Thursday, Ms. Butina, 30, pleaded guilty to a single charge of conspiring to act as a foreign agent in a deal with federal prosecutors. In doing so, she acknowledged that her activities were motivated by more than mere personal conviction.
As part of the deal, Ms. Butina admitted to being involved in an organized effort, backed by Russian officials, to open up unofficial lines of communication with influential Americans in the N.R.A. and in the Republican Party, and to win them over to the idea of Russia as a friend, not a foe.
Ms. Butina’s guilty plea now casts a spotlight on the Americans she worked with, including prominent members of the N.R.A. and her boyfriend, Paul Erickson, 56, a longtime Republican operative who ran Patrick J. Buchanan’s 1992 presidential campaign and who now faces accusations of fraud in three states. Officials have said federal investigators are examining what Mr. Erickson and others who helped Ms. Butina knew about her links to the Russian government.
Ms. Butina agreed to cooperate with the investigators as part of her deal. In exchange, she will most likely get a short prison term, or possibly be released after having already spent five months in jail. She will probably then be deported, according to court papers laying out the agreement.
At the hearing to change her plea on Thursday, the judge said Ms. Butina would remain in custody while she was cooperating with federal investigators. A hearing to consider when she should be sentenced was set for Feb. 12.
Yet even as prosecutors secured Ms. Butina’s conviction and cooperation, they faced questions about their initial portrayal of Ms. Butina as something like a character out of “Red Sparrow,” the spy thriller about a Russian femme fatale.
Prosecutors had already been forced to back off the most salacious accusations against Ms. Butina — that she used sex as spycraft — and acknowledged in court filings this week that she genuinely wanted a graduate degree, and was not simply posing as a student to live in the United States. They also dropped accusations of her being in contact with Russian intelligence agencies, and that she was only using Mr. Erickson to gain access to other influential Americans.
Ms. Butina’s lawyers had strenuously objected to the earlier portrayal of their client, and the plea deal was likely to provide her defenders with new fodder to argue that her activities look sinister only to those who see the world through the outdated lens of the Cold War. For all of the headline-grabbing talk of a flame-haired Russian spy seducing unwitting Americans that followed her arrest, they say, Ms. Butina hardly lived her life in the shadows.
She openly advocated Russia-friendly policies and closer connections between her homeland and the United States in speeches and during her time at American University in Washington, where she earned a master’s degree. Her cellphone case featured a picture of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia riding a horse shirtless. She frequented Russia House, an upscale Washington bar where Russian hockey stars like Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals enjoy vodka and caviar.
Ms. Butina similarly made little effort to hide her knack for getting close to powerful older men. She posed for pictures with prominent Republicans, including Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin and other former presidential candidates. She even managed to get a photo with Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, whom she met at a 2016 dinner hosted by the N.R.A. in Louisville, Ky.
She also made no secret of her desire to help broker a secret meeting with Donald J. Trump, then a candidate, and Mr. Putin during the 2016 election.
Ms. Butina’s arrest in July stemmed from what officials described as a broader counterintelligence investigation by the Justice Department and the F.B.I. that predated the 2016 election and is separate from the work being done by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III.
The investigation has focused on Aleksandr P. Torshin, a Russian government official who worked closely with Ms. Butina for years. Mr. Torshin is close to Christian conservatives in Russia and has been attending N.R.A. conventions in the United States since 2011.
Beginning in 2015, prosecutors said in the plea deal, Ms. Butina “agreed and conspired” with Mr. Torshin and Mr. Erickson — identified in court papers as the “Russian Official” and “U.S. Person 1” — to infiltrate the Republican Party and the N.R.A. and to promote Russia-friendly policies on behalf of the Kremlin. Mr. Torshin directed Ms. Butina’s work, they said, and Mr. Erickson helped her with what she called her “Diplomacy Project.”
They helped her organize trips to Moscow for prominent N.R.A. members, and helped her set up meetings for a Russian delegation to the National Prayer Breakfast in 2017.
“Throughout the conspiracy, Butina wrote notes to Russian Official about her efforts and her assessment of the political landscape in the United States in advance of the 2016 election,” the prosecutors wrote.
“Butina also sought Russian Official’s advice on whether to take meetings with certain people,” they added. “She asked him for direction on whether the Russian ‘government’ was ready to meet with some of those people.”
The plea deal also makes reference to George O’Neill Jr., a Rockefeller relative and conservative writer who helped pay Ms. Butina’s bills in the United States. Mr. O’Neill, who is not accused of wrongdoing, is described in the court papers as “a wealthy and well-connected U.S. person” who hosted large “friendship dinners” that were focused on improving relations between Russia and the United States.
The dinners, prosecutors said, afforded Ms. Butina chances “to meet individuals with political capital, learn their thoughts and inclinations toward Russia, gauge their responses to her and adjust her pitch accordingly.”
Then there was a Russian oligarch, Konstantin Y. Nikolayev, who provided money for some of Ms. Butina’s initial travel and work in the United States, prosecutors said. Mr. Nikolayev is a transport magnate whose wife runs a Russian gun company that Ms. Butina visited with an N.R.A. delegation in 2015. He has previously denied providing Ms. Butina with any financial support after 2014.
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