The New Abwehr Hypothesis of The Operation Trump: A Study In Political Psychology, Political Criminology, and Psychohistory, and as the aid for the General, Criminal and the Counterintelligence Investigations of Donald Trump - by Michael Novakhov, M.D. (Mike Nova): Web Research, Analysis, Hypotheses, and Opinions | Current News | Reviews of media reports | Selected reading lists | Site: http://trumpinvestigations.org/
The state of the facts on Trump's foreign policy | Manafort Sentencing Set For March 13 | Subpoena for Trump inaugural documents suggest criminal investigation | GRASSLEY: Mueller's Russia Probe Will Wrap-Up 'Within a Month' - 4:12 PM 2/5/2019
If his first State of the Union address last year is any guide, President Trump is likely to spend more time talking about domestic policy than foreign policy. Still, the administration faces a number of foreign policy challenges from Syria and Iran to Venezuela.
Here are some of the things to know about U.S. foreign policy going into the State of the Union address on Tuesday night.
Has Iran been complying with the nuclear deal?
After demanding a better deal for the United States, Mr. Trump in May officially withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 international Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. "This was a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made," he said of the pact, which lifted harsh economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for the regime's promise to restrict its nuclear program for at least a decade.
However, the president's intelligence officials said Iran is generally complying with the nuclear deal, even as Iranian officials have threatened to push the boundaries of the deal.
"We do not believe Iran is currently undertaking activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device," Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said in testimony on Capitol Hill last week.
The International Atomic Energy Agency also concluded last year that Iran is generally complying with the deal although it also concluded Iranian officials could do more to work with inspectors to boost confidence in its commitment.
But Mr. Trump refuted his own intelligence chiefs, telling CBS' "Face the Nation" in an interview last week he disagrees with them on the threat Iran poses, "100 percent."
"My intelligence people, if they said in fact that Iran is a wonderful kindergarten, I disagree with them 100 percent. It is a vicious country that kills many people," he said.
Does North Korea still pose a threat to the U.S.?
Mr. Trump claimed last year that North Korea was no longer a threat. But a January missile defense assessment from the Pentagon said North Korea still poses an "extraordinary threat," and the president's own top intelligence officials testified on Capitol Hill last week that North Korea shouldn't be ignored.
Mr. Trump has also pointed to North Korea's lack of missile tests since his June meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as evidence of success with North Korea, but North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told the United Nations General Assembly in October there was "no way" North Korea would disarm its weapons if it can't trust Washington. And Coats testified last week it was unlikely North Korea will ever denuclearize.
The president and Kim are expected to meet for their second summit at the end of February.
Is the U.S. willing to increase its intervention in Venezuela?
In late January, the Trump administration recognized National Assembly President Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim president, issued sweeping sanctions against the largest state-owned oil company in the South American country and offered $20 million in humanitarian aid to the Venezuelan people. The White House has urged President Nicolás Maduro, whose re-election in 2018 the administration considers to be illegitimate, to relinquish power. The U.S., which was the first nation to recognize Guaidó, has held out the threat of further action against Maduro -- administration officials have repeatedly said "all options are on the table."
Mr. Trump's crackdown against Maduro's increasingly authoritarian government has garnered rare bipartisan support in Congress. Some progressive lawmakers, however, have expressed concern about the U.S. meddling in a foreign political dispute and imposing crippling sanctions that could harm a Venezuelan population already grappling with widespread food and medicine shortages.
Afghanistan: U.S. troop withdrawal raises concern about Taliban
Last week, Zalmay Khalilzad, the top U.S. envoy in Afghanistan, said his diplomatic team agreed to a "draft of the framework" for a peace process with the Taliban. But important details in an agreement to end America's longest-running war still need to be fleshed out, and officials in Washington and Kabul have expressed concern about the withdrawal of U.S. troops without significant concessions from the insurgents or an assurance of peace.
Senior defense officials told CBS News in late December that the White House ordered the Pentagon to start planning a major drawdown of roughly 7,000 troops in Afghanistan fighting the Taliban insurgency. As is the case in Syria, Mr. Trump has not been quiet about his opposition to American involvement in Afghanistan, and he's recently suggested the Taliban has been forced to the negotiating table.
"I inherited a total mess in Syria and Afghanistan, the 'Endless Wars' of unlimited spending and death. During my campaign I said, very strongly, that these wars must finally end. We spend $50 Billion a year in Afghanistan and have hit them so hard that we are now talking peace…" the president recently tweeted.
But some officials have rejected the notion that Afghanistan is on the verge of peace. The U.S. government's special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, an Afghan war watchdog, reported to Congress on Thursday that the Afghan government actually lost territory during the last year.
Iraq and Syria: ISIS may have lost territory, but the group could re-emerge
The White House in December ordered the Pentagon to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria, with Mr. Trump all but declaring that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, was defeated and, therefore, there was no reason for troops to be in the region. Mr. Trump told CBS' "Face the Nation" recently that 2,000 troops currently remain in Syria, but they are starting to come home as they push out the "final remainder of the caliphate."
The Department of Defense, however,believes that "absent sustained pressure" on ISIS the group could re-emerge in Syria within six to 12 months.
Congress has yet to approve Trump's NAFTA redo
Last November, the United States, Mexico and Canada signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement — or USMCA — to replace NAFTA. The legislative branches of all three governments still need to ratify the deal.
If ratified, the trilateral agreement would open up the Canadian dairy market to American farmers, extend intellectual property protections and require that 40 to 45 percent of automobile parts be manufactured by workers who earn at least $16 per hour by 2023. Additionally, cars would need to have 75 percent of their components made in the United States, Mexico or Canada to be eligible for zero tariffs.
Despite the agreement not being ratified, the president has insisted Mexico is paying for his border wall — many times over — through the agreement.
"Mexico is paying for the Wall through the new USMCA Trade Deal," the president tweeted last month.
The White House hasn't specified exactly how the trade agreement would reimburse American taxpayers.
The "remain in Mexico" asylum policy debuted last week
Last week, the Trump administration officially launched a far-reaching policy to overhaul the asylum system by requiring certain non-Mexican migrants who cross the southern border to wait in Mexico while their asylum requests are processed in American courts. Under the policy, officially dubbed "Migration Protection Protocols," U.S. immigration authorities have started turning away asylum-seekers at the San Ysidro Port of Entry in San Diego.
The Mexican government said it does not agree with the "unilateral" measure by the U.S. government, but vowed to uphold its commitment to migrants and human rights.
The Trump administration is expected to expand the policy to other areas of the southern border — but the practice is also likely to be challenged in court.
Has Trump really been "tougher" on Moscow than any other president?
To denounce special Robert Mueller's far-reaching investigation into Russian meddling in U.S. elections and possible coordination between Trump campaign associates and the Kremlin, President Trump has repeatedly portrayed his administration's stance towards Russia as a tough and aggressive one. "I have been tougher on Russia than any president, maybe ever," the president told "Face the Nation" Sunday.
His claims represent a salient departure from his multiple calls on the campaign trail for the U.S. to have warmer relations with Russia and President Vladimir Putin, a strongman who Mr. Trump has praised on numerous occasions. In a remarkable press conference last summer after meeting one-on-one with Putin for more than two hours — a first for an American president — Mr. Trump, standing next to the Russian leader, challenged the assessment of U.S. intelligence agencies that Moscow interference in the 2016 election.
The Trump administration has taken some positions disliked by the Kremlin and that are in line with the foreign policy of previous Democratic and Republican administrations, including condemning Russian meddling in Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea, and withdrawing from arms-control treaties. But the White House's policy in other areas has been welcomed in the halls of the Kremlin.
The president's decisions to withdraw the approximately 2,000 American troops fighting ISIS in Syria — where Russian forces are backing President Bashar Al-Assad —and to start a major drawdown of U.S. soldiers engaged in the 17-year-old military campaign in Afghanistan, once a country under Soviet influence, were hailed in Moscow. Mr. Trump has also repeatedly sought to undermine NATO and the European Union, which act as military and economic barricades against Moscow, respectively. Additionally, despite some bipartisan opposition in Congress, the Treasury Department recently lifted sanctions against companies with ties to Russian tycoon and Kremlin ally Oleg Deripaska.
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"Russian Intelligence services and international organized crime and terrorism" - Google News
On December 8, 1987, President Ronald Reagan stood beside Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev in the East Room of the White House and signed one of the most consequential treaties of his presidency, which led the world’s two superpowers to voluntarily eliminate hundreds of short-range nuclear missiles.
Thirty-one years later, President Donald Trump, who has called himself “far greater than Ronald Reagan,” blew up his Republican forerunner’s major foreign policy accomplishment. The White House announced Friday it was suspending the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty because of repeated Russian violations. “Enough is enough,” the administration said in a statement. Russia removed itself from the agreement one day later, essentially rendering the agreement null and void if diplomats are unable to save it within six months.
Trump’s decision to abandon the treaty accelerated concerns from Democrats and nonproliferation advocates about the likelihood of another arms race, and, almost immediately, lawmakers introduced a swath of bills intended to limit the president’s near-unilateral ability to deploy nuclear arms. But it did not come as a surprise. US officials had privately accused Russia of violating the treaty’s ban on ground-based, intermediate-range missiles as early as 2013. The Obama administration leveled this charge publicly in a 2014 report, but US allies were more concerned at the time with another Russia-related headache: the country’s annexation of Crimea. Without making public explicit evidence that Russia violated the treaty, American leaders struggled to wrangle Russia into compliance late in Obama’s second term. “Let me be clear: we made no progress,” Alexandra Bell, a former official in Obama’s State Department, told Mother Jones.
In November, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats finally put the backing of the intelligence community behind allegations of Russian noncompliance. In a press conference, he identified by name the cruise missile reportedly in violation of the treaty and outlined a timeline of American outreach to Russia. “We believe Russia’s objective was to keep the United States constrained while it quietly built and deployed a force of illegal missiles that threaten Europe,” he said.
It might seem strange for a president with several associates under investigation for improper ties with Russia to suddenly adopt a hawkish stance toward Moscow, but Trump and his advisers, especially National Security Adviser John Bolton, had been telegraphing this decision for months. While campaigning in Elko, Nevada, during the run-up to the midterm elections, the president told reporters that Russia should not be allowed to “do weapons” that “we are not allowed to.” He added, “We are going to terminate the agreement.” As early as September 2014, when Bolton was a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, he disparaged the agreement as “obsolete,” writing in the Wall Street Journal, “Maintaining international security requires that the US have access to the full spectrum of conventional and nuclear options.”
It’s Bolton who many observers single out as the brains behind this move, given his historic opposition to arms control treaties of any kind. “John Bolton is a serial arms-control treaty killer,” Joe Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, a foundation that advocates against nuclear proliferation, told Mother Jones. “He believes in the brute-force approach to strategic relations.”
Abandoning the treaty gives Bolton a major policy win, but it also plays into a realignment of the administration’s national security priorities that predates his tenure. Gone are the days where stateless actors like al Qaeda and ISIS dominated the attention of military leaders. Under former defense secretary Jim Mattis, the Pentagon oriented its strategy toward competition with Russia and China. The defense establishment in Washington has been especially preoccupied by China as a national security threat. As Mattis’s successor Patrick Shanahan reportedly said upon taking over last month, his top priority as Pentagon chief is “China, China, China.” Even as the US and Russia have stockpiled more than 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons, China’s growing capacity as a global rival has animated the White House’s approach to Cold War treaties that were signed in an era when the Soviet nuclear weapons had been the only conceivable existential threat to Europe and the United States.
Those memories are not lost on European leaders either. While a NATO statement released after Trump’s exit largely adopted the American stance that “Russia will bear sole responsibility” for the treaty’s demise, other European leaders were less restrained. “What we definitely don’t want to see is our continent going back to being a battlefield or a place where other superpowers confront themselves,” European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said last week.
“On our side, there’s lots of incentives to get rid of the treaty—not for Europe, but for Asia,” says Jasen Castillo, an associate professor at Texas A&M University who served in the Pentagon during the George W. Bush administration. “Russia lives next to a giant factory of intermediate-range missiles called China.” That’s a viewpoint shared widely among supporters of the administration’s decision to exit the treaty, including at the highest levels of government. Elbridge Colby, who helped develop the new National Defense Strategy under Mattis, advanced a similar argument in a Washington Post op-ed. “[T]he United States no longer benefits from a ban on ground-based intermediate-range systems—but because of China, not Russia,” he wrote. “China poses a much larger and more sophisticated long-term military threat than Russia, and U.S. strike options are more constrained by the geography of the Pacific.” (A senior administration official who requested anonymity to brief reporters last week denied any undue focus on China. “For the United States, this really doesn’t have anything to do with China,” he said. “This is solely about Russia’s violation of this treaty.”)
Not all experts believe that China has the capability to become as significant a nuclear player as Russia and the US. “China is a nuclear pygmy compared to us,” Cirincione says. “But there are proposals from defense contractors and some members of the military to build new types of weapons.” Nowhere is that synthesis between government and the resurgent defense industry more obvious than in the administration’s recently unveiled “Missile Defense Review,” which highlights the threat of Russia and China at length, alongside usual boogeymen like Iran and North Korea. The long-anticipated review, which President Trump publicly promoted at the Pentagon last month, is another example of the administration’s efforts to roll back his predecessor’s initiatives, in this case the Obama-era plan to reduce the size of America’s nuclear arsenal. “The United States will not accept any limitation or constraint on the development or deployment of missile defense capabilities needed to protect the homeland against rogue missile threats,” a report summary notes.
These developments have not escaped the eye of an empowered Congress, where Democrats now control the House and several serious contenders for the party’s presidential nomination in 2020 have carved out prominent roles in the Senate. Last week, one leading candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), teamed up with House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) to introduce companion bills that would eliminate the ability for the US to strike an adversary first with nuclear weapons. Those bills, coupled with similar legislation from Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), demonstrate a growing desire from Democrats to rein in the president’s authority to wield nuclear weapons. “Trump’s brand is to be unpredictable and rash,” Lieu said in a statement, “which is exactly what you don’t want the person who possesses the nuclear football to be.”
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Photo: Ernst Urhlau, former chief of BND and later the "consultant on geopolitical risks" for the Deutsche Bank, and the political ally of Gerhard Schroeder. Uhrlau was the chief of the Hamburg police when the core group of 9/11 hijackers, the so called Hamburg Cell, lived and received training there. He was uncooperative and hostile towards 9/11 Investigationinquiries.
»German Intelligence Chief Wilhelm Franz Canaris 24/01/19 06:17 from Mike Nova’s Shared Newslinks Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Warfare History Network. Adolf Hitler’s spymaster, Admiral Wilhelm Canaris, was actually a dedicated anti-Nazi who did everything he could to frustrate the Führer’s plans. by David…
»Canaris and Heydrich – Axis History Forum 24/01/19 06:16 from Mike Nova’s Shared Newslinks Michael_Novakhov shared this story . Canaris and Heydrich #1 Post by Ezboard » 29 Sep 2002, 21:37 GFM2001 Member Posts: 55 (8/20/01 12:32:55 pm) Reply Canaris and Heydrich ————————————————————…
»Service record of Reinhard Heydrich 24/01/19 05:43 from Mike Nova’s Shared Newslinks Michael_Novakhov shared this story . SS- service record cover of Obergruppenführer und General der Polizei Reinhard Heydrich The service record of Reinhard Heydrich was a collection of official SS documents maintained at the SS Pers…
»Heydrich’s homosexuality? – Axis History Forum 24/01/19 04:52 from Mike Nova’s Shared Newslinks Michael_Novakhov shared this story . Heydrich’s homosexuality? #1 Post by Ezboard » 29 Sep 2002, 19:03 HannahR New Member Posts: 1 (5/26/01 5:43:01 pm) Reply Heydrich’s homosexuality? ————————————————…
M. N.: The New Abwehr enjoys and employs the deep and intimate connections with the criminal Underworld which go back to the early 1920-s, the conditions after the Germany's defeat in the WW1 and the resulting "Restrictions" (I almost typed "Sanctions") which made the symbiotic and sometimes parasitic relations with Police and Criminals the matter of survival for the Abwehr which based itself at that time at the Military Police Stations. Money Laundering is another, related sub-specialty which was a matter of survival and necessity at that time, and the Abwehr under Canaris (which really is the Abwehr we are talking about) made both areas the traditional historical "fields of excellence". Money Laundering , from Deutsche Bank to Chabad dealers to Oligarchs, e.g. Lev Leviev and others, and most notably by our pretty laundry girls and boys from the Trump-Kushner Crime Family , was and is one of the truly heart felt activities for the Abwehr, and...
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Inoreader Trump Investigations News Review at 9 a.m. created by Michael Novakhov • Mar 25 2022 The Trump Investigations News Review at 9 a.m. EST Daily Review Of News And Opinions - Blog by Michael Novakhov The New Abwehr Hypothesis of The Operation Trump: A Study In Political Psychology, Political Criminology, and Psychohistory, and as the aid for the General, Criminal and the Counterintelligence Investigations of Donald Trump - by Michael Novakhov, M.D. (Mike Nova): Web...
Inoreader The Trump Investigations created by Michael Novakhov • Jan 23 2022 The Trump Investigations - Review Of News And Opinions - Blog by Michael Novakhov The New Abwehr Hypothesis of The Operation Trump: A Study In Political Psychology, Political Criminology, and Psychohistory, and as the aid for the General, Criminal and the Counterintelligence Investigations of Donald Trump - by Michael Novakhov, M.D. (Mike Nova): Web Research, Analysis, Hypotheses, and Opinions | Cu...
9:37 AM 7/19/2019 - Melania Knauss Trump is a lesbian Melania Trump poses naked for Max magazine | Daily Mail Online Friday July 19 th , 2019 at 9:31 AM News | Mail Online 1 Share Naked pictures from lesbian-themed photoshoot emerge of Donald Trump's wife Melania posing for a French men's magazine at the age of 25 Photos appeared in the January 1996 issue of now-defunct Max magazine One shows Mrs Trump just in heels with her hand over her private parts French photographer Alé de Basseville took the photos in Manhattan Slovenian-born Mrs Trump was then taking her modeling career to the US Appears under her stage name Melania K, short for maiden name Knauss By Daniel Bates In New York For The Daily Mail and Clemence Michallon For Dailymail.com Published: 00:27 BST, 1 August 2016 | Updated: 14:05 BST, 1 August 2016 e-mail 3.8k shares 3.9k ...
Inoreader Trump Investigations News Review at 9 a.m. created by Michael Novakhov • Feb 22 2022 The Trump Investigations News Review at 9 a.m. EST Daily Review Of News And Opinions - Blog by Michael Novakhov The New Abwehr Hypothesis of The Operation Trump: A Study In Political Psychology, Political Criminology, and Psychohistory, and as the aid for the General, Criminal and the Counterintelligence Investigations of Donald Trump - by Michael Novakhov, M.D. (Mike Nova): Web...
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