The New Abwehr Hypothesis of The Operation Trump: A Study In Political Psychology, Political Criminology, and Psychohistory, and as the aid for the General, Criminal and the Counterintelligence Investigations of Donald Trump - by Michael Novakhov, M.D. (Mike Nova): Web Research, Analysis, Hypotheses, and Opinions | Current News | Reviews of media reports | Selected reading lists | Site: http://trumpinvestigations.org/
Gina Haspel, CIA Director, at January 29, 2019 Senate Intelligence Committee hearing - Google Search
Following the annual assessment of global threats by America’s intelligence agencies presented at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Tuesday by Dan Coats, the director of National Intelligence, Gina Haspel, the C.I.A. director, and other officials appointed by the president, President Trump blasted them, accusing them of being “passive and naïve” about the dangers posed by Iran, and failing to defend his handling of Afghanistan, North Korea and ISIS. “They are wrong!” he tweeted about his own Intelligence agencies. “They need to go back to school.”
Trump's outburst revealed the gulf between the Intelligence agencies and a president who came into office determined to disrupt long-standing foreign policy orthodoxy. It also revealed Trump’s deep frustration at the lack of recognition for his own intelligence assessments, and the lack of credit he has received for his successes.
The differences between Trump and the Intelligence agencies are striking in their width and depth, given that Trump himself appointed the heads of all these agencies:
On North Korea: the agencies say that North Korean is unlikely to give up its nuclear arsenal, whereas Trump believes his diplomacy has eliminated the threat.
On Iran: Trump views Iran as an implacable enemy, while the agencies believe that Iran is not taking steps to manufacture a nuclear bomb; and is fully in compliance with the treaty signed in 2015, from which Trump has had the U.S. withdraw.
On ISIS: Trump has declared that ISIS is already defeated, enabling an immediate withdrawal from Syria. In the light of the ensuing uproar, Trump said on Wednesday ISIS “will soon be destroyed.” The agencies believe that ISIS will remain a threat for many years.
On Syria and Afghanistan: Trump believes the U.S. should pull out soon. The agencies believe that this will lead to bigger problems down the road.
On Russian meddling in the election: Trump has said that he trusts Putin’s denial, while the Intelligence agencies are convinced that Russia meddled.
On NATO: Trump questions the value of NATO, while the Intelligence agencies all regard NATO as the bedrock of America’s international security.
On trade: The agencies believe that Trump’s confrontations in trade policies and his “unilateralism” have strained the United States’ alliances.
In short, in issue after important issue, the heads of the agencies were saying that the positions that the president has been taking are not consistent with their view of the evidence.
The annual “Worldwide Threat Assessments” have traditionally been dispassionate apolitical surveys of the threats facing the United States. The agencies’ assessment is based on a vast array of human and information resources around the world, carefully evaluated and cross-checked. In their report and their appearance before Congress, the agency heads continued in that tradition, knowing full well that the President would be furious with their conclusions. They were living examples of “telling the truth to power.”
The message did not go down well. Today, Trump summoned the heads of the Intelligence agencies to the Oval Office. We don't know exactly what happened in the meeting, but afterwards Trump claimed that the agencies had been “misquoted by the media”: they were, he said, "now all on the same page", though without explaining how the blunt and unanimous statements shown the previous day on national television could possibly have been merely “misquoted by the media,” or could plausibly have been resolved by a single meeting in the Oval Office. The President’s Wide-Ranging Expertise
Over the last several years, President Trump has noted that on a vast array of topics he is the world’s “foremost authority".The subjects of his mastery include border security, campaign contributions, courts, debt, drones, Facebook, infrastructure, the Left, money, nuclear war, Osama Bin Laden, politicians, steelworkers, taxes, technology, television, trade, visas and Wall Street bankers. It is therefore perhaps not surprising that the topic of foreign threats is also one on which Trump sees himself as better informed than his own Intelligence agencies.
If the Intelligence agencies are to catch up with the President’s expertise, follow his directive and “go back to school,” it is pertinent to ask: what school should they go back to? Conventional schooling such as universities and think tanks are beside the point, since the Intelligence agencies are already deeply linked to and allied with those resources. Instead, the President seems to be suggesting that the Intelligence agencies need to cast their information-gathering net more widely and draw on the diverse and unusual resources on which he himself relies.
Trump draws on at least three non-conventional sources for his insights. Fox & Friends
Trump often draws on the wisdom of the talking heads on Fox television — longtime on-air personalities, retired generals, hardline foreign policy experts, and many who have no particular expertise apart from a willingness to praise and defend Trump’s actions, attack his critics and validate his “America First” approach to the world. Appearance on Fox is often an audition to join Trump’s administration as with National Security Adviser, John Bolton and the Acting Attorney General, Matthew Whitaker.
Fox News talk show host Sean Hannity and President Donald Trump (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)Getty
Figures like Sebastian Gorka, a Conservative academic who writes about Islamic radicalism, Lou Dobbs, who has helped shape Trump’s view on China and trade, and Michael Pillsbury, the hawkish China scholar, don’t have jobs in the White House, but may be just as influential as if they did. Their views expressed on Fox often re-appear shortly after as Trump tweets. Whether their opinions have the depth and evidence to warrant presidential action remains an open question. Fictional Movies
Knowledgeable experts puzzled for a time about the source of Trump’s extraordinary claim—made 10 times in the last 22 days—that immigrants from Mexico have stronger, bigger and faster cars than American law enforcement, that prayer rugs are mysteriously popping up at the border and that women are being duct taped and put in the backs of vans.
Although no factual evidence has emerged to support the claims, commentators like MSNBC host Rachel Maddow have noted the startling similarity of Trump’s claims to the 2018 movie Sicario: Day of the Soldado, which depicts Mexican drug cartels smuggling terrorists across the U.S. border, shows taped-up women, “super strong cars” and border agents finding prayer rugs.
The use of fiction to stimulate the imagination is a well-known technique in intelligence assessment to help avoid groupthink and challenge stale thinking. It can awaken the mind to consider possibilities that more conventional, entrenched thinking may overlook. However, the possibilities evoked by fiction need to be verified through evidence and assessment before they can be considered a suitable basis for action. In drawing on the use of fiction, President appears to omit the verification step, thereby confusing possibility with actuality. Conversations With Vladimir Putin
Given the startling convergence of Trump’s policy positions with those of America’s adversary, Russia, the more alarming possibility is that Trump is getting some of his ‘intelligence’ from that source.
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. (Jussi Nukari via Getty Images)Getty
This was embarrassingly explicit in the Helsinki summit in July 2018 when Trump, before the whole world, declared his trust in Putin ahead of his own intelligence agencies on the issue of Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 election.
But there are other worrying instances when Trump suddenly, out of the blue, has also blurted out Putin’s talking points. Just this last month, during a rambling meeting with the press in early January 2019, supposedly about the government shutdown, Trump abruptly began claiming that Russia had been right to invade Afghanistan, thereby contradicting several decades of unanimous condemnation. Trump said:
Russia used to be the Soviet Union. Afghanistan made it Russia, because they went bankrupt fighting in Afghanistan. Russia. … The reason Russia was in Afghanistan was because terrorists were going into Russia. They were right to be there. The problem is, it was a tough fight. And literally they went bankrupt.
The implication seemed to be that if America didn’t build a wall along the Southern border, it too would follow the Soviet Union into bankruptcy. Even if we set aside the evidence-free claim that “terrorists were going into Russia,” the source of Trump’s odd comment is problematic: there is no known segment of American opinion, even the extreme-right fantasists, that have been offering any such view. Even the Wall Street Journal wrote: “We cannot recall a more absurd misstatement of history by an American President"
It seems unlikely Trump had read about this somewhere, since he’s not much of a reader of anything, let alone the forty-year-old history of the Middle East. Nor is it likely to have been his staff, who generally discourage him from talking about Russia.
So where did it come from? It turns out that
the Russian government is currently moving an official resolution defending the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. (The approval is scheduled to take place this month.) Russians have previously called the invasion a tragic error, but Vladimir Putin’s regime — which regards the collapse of the Soviet Union as a world-historical tragedy — is systematically rehabilitating various Soviet crimes.
We don’t know for sure who put this idea in Trump’s head, although among the more plausible sources are the multiple private conversations that Trump has held with Vladimir Putin, often without any American translator or note-taker present, most recently in late November 2018 at the G-20 meeting in Argentina.
This is not an isolated case. In another instance, early in the Trump administration, his national security aides sought information about Polish incursions in Belarus. The request was worrying because there was no evidence of such incursions, except for the fact that Russia was alleging them.
Then there was the case of the tiny Balkan nation of Montenegro, which in 2017 became the first new member of NATO in a decade. A few weeks after its admission, Trump went on Fox News and attacked the idea of defending America’s new NATO ally. “You know, Montenegro is a tiny country with very strong people. … They are very aggressive people," Trump said. “They may get aggressive, and congratulations, you’re in World War III.” Here again, destabilizing and undermining Montenegro was of little interest in the U.S., but it was a key plank in Putin’s agenda, who even considered assassinating Montenegro’s leader. So why is Trump echoing the Kremlin on this issue? The Meaning Of Trump’s Unusual Sources
What should the Intelligence agencies make of the diverse sources from which the president apparently gets his ‘intelligence’?
Trump is entertaining his base: One possibility is that this is just ‘Trump being Trump,’ saying things that will amuse, and distract his followers. It is Trump doing things differently, not to be taken any more seriously than a late-night comedian. This is Trump, the entertainer, the comic, who keeps his base fascinated with interesting stories. It hardly matters whether the stories are true or not. What’s important is whether they entertain. If that is the case, then Trump can hardly ask the real Intelligence agencies to play that game.
Authoritarian propaganda: Another possibility is that Trump is a cunning politician who, having made more than 8,000 false or misleading statements since taking office, is a dangerous would-be authoritarian, who is endeavoring to distort the perceived reality of his supporters through seductive, endlessly repeated, fictions, which become more believable to them than the actual reality. Once they fall in love with these fictions, then they become disinterested in the real world: reality no longer matters. If that is the case, then again, the activity is the very antithesis of what the Intelligence agencies stand for and pursue.
Trump as Russian intelligence asset: The final and most worrying possibility flows from the reality that Trump’s agenda aligns very closely with that of Russia, either by a series of coincidences or because of Trump's past or future financial interests in Russia, or because of the hold that Putin has over Trump through hard Kompromat. Thus Putin has had remarkable success, starting with a weak hand: getting his preferred candidate elected as U.S. president, the subsequent disruption of American institutions, the destabilization of NATO, the planned U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East, the U.K. withdrawal from the European Union, and the relaxation of sanctions on the companies of Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska, despite the objections of a majority of both houses of Congress. In all of this, Trump has, wittingly or unwittingly, been a helping hand.
It is the third possibility that is the most worrying. Putin knew that Trump and his campaign were lying to the American people about the pursuit of the Moscow Project in the course of the presidential campaign of 2016 and also subsequently about his lies as president. Since Russia knew what Trump was up to—while the American people didn’t—Trump himself has been at risk of becoming a victim of hard Kompromat and in effect turning himself into a Russian intelligence asset. Even if Trump isn’t one, he is acting almost exactly as if he was. And read also: Mueller Explains Putin's Hold Over Trump Russia Is Still Running Interference For Trump Trump And Authoritarian Propaganda
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M. N.: The New Abwehr enjoys and employs the deep and intimate connections with the criminal Underworld which go back to the early 1920-s, the conditions after the Germany's defeat in the WW1 and the resulting "Restrictions" (I almost typed "Sanctions") which made the symbiotic and sometimes parasitic relations with Police and Criminals the matter of survival for the Abwehr which based itself at that time at the Military Police Stations. Money Laundering is another, related sub-specialty which was a matter of survival and necessity at that time, and the Abwehr under Canaris (which really is the Abwehr we are talking about) made both areas the traditional historical "fields of excellence". Money Laundering , from Deutsche Bank to Chabad dealers to Oligarchs, e.g. Lev Leviev and others, and most notably by our pretty laundry girls and boys from the Trump-Kushner Crime Family , was and is one of the truly heart felt activities for the Abwehr, and...
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